Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
